The Iran War – Risks and Chances

By CrisHam, 12 March, 2026

The risks which arise from the Israeli-American attack on Iran are enormous, but so are the opportunities. Much more is at stake than sustainably combating terrorism and establishing a stable security structure in the Middle East. The Iran war, like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, is part of a global conflict whose true contours are obscured by the manipulated landscape of mainstream media. Yet, at its end, an authoritarian, UN-centric one-world state is already looming.

Every war into which Western nations allow themselves to be drawn brings them closer to the end of the freedom and authentic democracy they believe to be defending.

Since the absurdly delayed Vietnam War (1955-1975), citizens have been deeply divided into left-wing and conservative camps. Leftists have since advocated a lenient pacifism at the expense of national interests, while conservatives are increasingly being manipulated into becoming neoconservatives who espouse a crude, heavy-handed militarism.

The tensions between these two false worldviews have threatened internal peace in Western states for far too long. The war with Iran provides an opportunity to abandon these equally self-destructive paths. However, this requires recognizing the psychological mechanisms at work since Vietnam. https://www.frieden-freiheit-fairness.com/en/blog/stop-wests-self-destruction - Part 1

On the left of the political spectrum, there has been an increase in appeasement towards Islamists.

While the conservative camp in Europe has split, in the US under Donald Trump it has broken away from the neoconservative policy of suicidal, protracted wars. Through two short, hard, and effective strikes against definite enemies of liberal democracy, he has restored the lost respect for the superpower. The first, in June 2025, with the impressive destruction of underground Iranian nuclear facilities, prevented a further escalation of the 12-day war initiated by Netanyahu. The second, with the almost bloodless end of the Maduro dictatorship, gave effect to the Venezuelan nation's right to self-determination under Article 1 of the UN Charter.

With this one-day action, Trump demonstrated a minimally invasive approach, long overdue since the adoption of the UN Charter in 1945, that elegantly liberates freedom-loving nations from despots. This is a crucial step away from protracted wars like those in Iraq and Afghanistan, where the nation in question was always punished for the transgressions of its autocratic rulers.

However, in the current war with Iran, Trump's stabilizing course is severely threatened. The Middle East is home to the world's largest concentration of unreliable ‘friends’ of the West with differing goals and values, including a nuclear power and an emerging superpower. https://timesca.com/how-central-asia-is-shifting-from-russia-towards-turkey/

The fact that the nuclear power Pakistan (certainly not by chance) attacked Afghanistan shortly before the start of the Iran-Iraq War reveals more than just troubling information flows. Firstly, the threat to Israel is amplified by an incalculable dimension, and secondly, Western states can now ask themselves how they intend to finally address the foreseeable influx of Islamic refugees with principles rather than self-destructive appeasement. https://www.frieden-freiheit-fairness.com/en/blog/fraud-manipulated-clash-civilizations-short-version

Another risk factor in the Iran-Iraq War is the military strategy of the Netanyahu government. According to this Dahiya Doctrine, civilian infrastructure and housing are being deliberately destroyed. Its proponents claim this will cause suffering civilians to turn away from the terrorists. This misconception has made Israel, the victim of the October 2023 attack, the loser in the following information and propaganda war. Antisemitism has risen worldwide, while Islamists and terrorists have been morally emboldened.

Applying the Dahiya Doctrine in the Iran war would torpedo Trump's concept of minimizing civilian harm and distort the liberation of the oppressed population into a destruction of the country.

Therefore, Trump must now keep all governments in the region, as well as the leadership of his own military and intelligence services, firmly on a tight leash. This has to include avoiding Dahiya-style interventions in Lebanon. If the control of the situation fails, the Iran war promises to take the brutal, protracted, and ultimately self-destructive course that all major American wars, from Vietnam to Afghanistan, have followed. https://www.frieden-freiheit-fairness.com/en/blog/iran-treacherous-trap

Trump's political survival depends on his success likewise, as congressional elections are scheduled for November 2026. A delayed war with Iran would almost certainly result in a defeat for the Republicans and subsequently impeachment proceedings against the President.

 

An extended version of this article can be found here: https://www.frieden-freiheit-fairness.com/en/blog/military-doctrine-threatens-liberation-irani-nation